According to the predictions released Thursday, April 2, 2020 by the experts at Colorado State University, our upcoming hurricane season from June 1 to November 30th is going to be a hefty one with 8 hurricanes and a total of 16 storms.
The prediction goes on with four of the hurricanes becoming high category storms, ranging from category 3-5, with winds of at least 111 mph.
“The last season with four or more major hurricanes was the record damage-causing year of 2017 that saw Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria,” CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller said. “All caused significant damage in the US and Caribbean.”
With an average of 12 storms/hurricanes per season, and the predicated 16 upcoming storms, we must prepare. The forecasts don’t provide exact details on the locations the hurricanes or storms will hit.
The researchers are saying with an average of 84% over the last century, we are looking at a 95% chance that at least one hurricane will make landfall in 2020.
Researchers are backing their forecasts with confidence. “This year, we used four different techniques to develop our forecast,” Klotzbach mentioned. “And they all point towards an active season.”
Colorado State hasn’t predicted 4 major hurricanes in one season since 2013. “I’d say that this year, we’re pretty confident,” Klotzbach said.
He did also mention that a lack of El Nino conditions can change things up a bit, however. When El Nino is present, increased vertical wind reduces Atlantic hurricane activity.
Klotzbach also stated that “the tropical Atlantic is quite a bit warmer than it has been the past few years at this time.” Warm waters are fuel to hurricanes.
April is the earliest experts can indicate the conditions and predict the hurricane season. “We find that there is just too much uncertainty with the future state of both (El Niño) and the Atlantic prior to that time,” Klotzbach says.
Their forecasting this far in advance can be pretty accurate, with 40 years of data. They also include sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear and El Nino. Still, these statistical and dynamical models fail in some years, the researchers made clear.
“Last year, we forecast a near-average hurricane season and ended up a bit more active than we thought,” Klotzbach said.
This year is the 37th year the Colorado University has predicted an Atlantic hurricane season.
The official forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release in May.
Although four major hurricanes are forecast this season, that doesn’t mean any necessarily will hit the US coast.
CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller said “Two of the last three years have had major hurricane landfalls in the US (2017 and 2018), before that, there was a 12-year drought without a single major hurricane landfall anywhere in the country (from Hurricane Wilma in 2005 to Hurricane Harvey in 2017).”
So, prepare what you can. From your home to your financials. Every hurricane season brings a surprise, this time be ready!